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Wednesday, November 4th, 2009
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dmorr
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A few hands of note, in chronological order:
The game starts when I get there (hmmmmm...). I buy $2200. Second hand, I have KK in the blinds, raise preflop, bet the flop, and push in on the turn. I get called down and win -- he started with 1500 and busted.
A while later I'm up to 4500 when Marcus arrives. He bribes a player $300 to give him his seat, and we pretty quickly get into a hand. Emre and Marcus limp, Eldon raises to 220. He only has 1200 back, but Emre has 3500 and Marcus has infinity, and I'm pretty sure they'll call if I do, so I call with 77 on the button and they in fact call behind. The flop is K(74), ding. Checked to Eldon who jams for 1200. I think for a while and smooth call, Emre folds, and now Marcus pushes all in. I call of course, and the turn and river blank off. Eldon shows A2s for the nut flush draw, Marcus claims a straight flush draw, and then tells me I got lucky that everything worked out the way it did. Indeed.
Eldon rebuys and opens for 80. I raise to 280 in the cutoff with QQ, he calls. The flop is (AK)T, we check. The turn is a Q, he bets out 360. Hm. I call. The river is a K, and he bets 600 with 800 behind. Well, what could he have? I think he'd fold a J if I raise, and I'm behind most of the boats. So either he has a bluff, a J, or a better hand, so raising seems bad unless he specifically has TT. So I just call. He was in fact bluffing with 99.
I have 10,000 and AK late. Marcus opens for 80 and gets a call, and I raise to 320. Marcus now reraises 1000 more. Hm. What's his range here? QQ+/AK? JJ? Actually I think not only will he do it with JJ, he'll also have some random bluffy hands in there too. How will he respond to a raise? I think he'll put me on a giant pair and fold QQ and AK and so on, which makes a raise look really tempting. Ok, I raise 3000 more. He thinks for a while and folds, then asks me if I had AA. No, I tell him, just cowboys. (I wonder if he reads this? This seems like the kind of hand I should probably not reveal. Shhh, don't tell anyone.)
Then I open utg with 99, Emre calls, and Marcus raises 200 more. I call as does Emre. The flop is K92r. I bet out 560, hoping to get raised. Emre folds and Marcus calls. The turn is an 8, putting the second club on the board. I check, Marcus fires 1600, and I check-raise to 4500. Marcus thinks for a bit, then tells me that "it's almost impossible for you to have this hand beat." That strikes me as extremely good news. I have the second nuts, and if he had the nuts I don't see him thinking it might be possible to beat it. Plus that sounds like an unlikely speech to give there with the nuts. Eventually he calls. The river is a J, and I put him in for his last 6500. He sighs, says he has top two, and then tells me I must have 99. Then he calls. Yup, 99, nice read. He shows KcJc for a pair and a flush draw on the turn.
So... you have top pair, ok kicker facing a $3000 bet on the turn and you think it's almost impossible for you to be beat? That deep in a hand I either have top pair beat or a bluff, and mostly not the bluff. You should be thinking, "How likely is it that he's bluffing," not "My hand sure looks good." Though to be fair, he will definitely get the other 6500 on the river if the backdoor clubs show up. He gets up and leaves.
I later relate this hand to a friend in the following way: "I open for 60 early, and you raise with KJs..." and so on. We get to the turn and I ask what he does in Marcus' shoes after he gets check-raised. He replies, "I don't make any of those actions." Yeah, good point. Me neither.
Then a couple of smaller pots. Several people are in for 60, and so am I with ATo on the button. The flop is A66, they check, I bet 260, Eldon calls. The turn is an 8 and he bets out 500. Hm. This looks a lot like a delayed steal, which is a play I've seen him make from time to time, and he's stuck which makes stealing a lot more likely. I think he doesn't really have to have any kind of draw here -- a pocket pair, or KQ, or whatever is definitely possible, so I don't mind giving a cheap card. And if I raise, he can't bluff again. So I call, planning to call the river again. The river is a 7, and sure enough, he bets his last 1200. I call and get shown... 77. Nice hand sir, well played.
I flop another set or two for small pots, and cash out the biggest win I've ever had in a cash game.
Winning is fun. I recommend it to everyone.
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Comments: Read 4 or Add Your Own.
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dmorr
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I'm in the 10-10-20 lc game and discussing sports betting. I had a friendly bet with another player where I had laid 185:100 on the yankees to win the series. I offered to let him out for 70 after looking up the odds on wsex. If you pick the middle of the lines the Yankees are -675, or almost 7:1 favorites. He told me there was no way he'd settle since he was getting 2:1.
Ok, that sounds like an opportunity. I offered him a further 3:1 bet on the series outcome. He immediately accepted... as did three other people. Uh, ok. Too bad I don't have an account on one of the betting sites -- I could bet the middle. Or icoukd just enjoy having such a good bet. One odd thing is that this bet feels huge to me despite having several times that on the table -- but this an order of magnitude more than I've bet on sports before.
In the meantime I doubled up in the first three hands dealt at the table, so I can lose the 1200 and still be ahead. :)
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Comments: Read 6 or Add Your Own.
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Monday, November 2nd, 2009
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I went to sleep early on Saturday, at about 10:30. I was exhausted and really needed the rest. I woke up in the middle of the night a time or two, but didn't really start to wake up for real until sometime after 8. I drifted in and out of sleep until 9:30ish when I decided it was time to get up. I came out and appreciated that Jason had done some serious house cleaning when he couldn't get any sleep due to a chest cold. I went to the bedroom and turned on the radio expecting to hear Car Talk at 10. NPR was going into the news again. I was confused until I realized it was the end of daylight savings. Woohoo! Not only did I get a great night's sleep and the house was well on its way to being clean again, but it was an hour earlier in the day.
I still hate the way it is suddenly dark when I leave work (which didn't hit me until today), but I felt so rested yesterday. This is probably the best experience I've had with daylight savings ever!
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Comments: Add Your Own.
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Sunday, November 1st, 2009
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Marty is healthy and happy.
Jason took her without me because I was at school with Alex celebrating Halloween.Me: "How did she handle the shots?"
Jason: "Well. She cried."
Me: "How did you handle the shots?"
Jason: "Well. I didn't cry."
Stats: - Height: 32" (90th percentile)
- Head circumference: 18" (50% percentile)
- Weight: 18 pounds, 15 ounces (3rd percentile)
Yes, that is the 3rd percentile. I spoke to Jason on the phone after the appointment.Me: "How was the check-up?"
Jason: "Good. She's 90th percentile in length and 3rd percentile in weight."
Me: "3rd?"
Jason: "Yes, 3rd."
Me: "As in 3?"
Jason: "Yes, 3." We're not really worried about it since she eats just about everything in sight. She's just skinny. I guess she's going to get lots of ice cream just before bedtime.
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Comments: Read 1 or Add Your Own.
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Friday, October 30th, 2009
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At a Halloween party at Marty's day care:
Alex looks down at her plate of "boo" pasta and chicken nuggets and blurts out rather loudly, "Where are the vegetables?"
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Comments: Add Your Own.
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Thursday, October 29th, 2009
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dmorr
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Yesterday's session at Lucky Chances was entertaining. One of the players I talk a lot about is Eldon. I think his A game is the best I've ever seen -- his hand reading is tremendous, and when he's in tight/aggressive/selective bluff mode, he's really tough. But I'm pretty sure he is a decent to big loser in the game because he periodically blows up and bluffs off thousands in a session.
Yesterday he took a beat, started playing looser, lost with AQ all in preflop against 96s for 2000, played looser, lost again to a 5 outer for 3000 after the money went in on the turn, and was in full steam mode. He started offering various bets to people. He offered me this: ever time he wins a pot he pays me 100; every time I win a pot I pay him 80. Blind steals count. I was three seats to his right for a moderate positional advantage.
So on the face of it, this is a super good bet for me. In our normal games he plays more hands than I do; when he's steaming he plays a ton of hands. But it does mean we can almost never play a hand, and certainly never raise preflop unless the pot is already big. Pot-building raises preflop only.
I declined for two reasons. One is that I'm not sure I'd be better at adjusting than he is. It would take me out of my regular, winning game. The second is that it would give him a good reason to tighten up, and I really didn't want that. So I declined.
Here's why I didn't want to take the bet. Some time later, he's lost more again mostly due to bad beats, and still hot. I open for 60 from the middle with AdJd, and then learn that it's a kill pot so it's 80 to go. Bah, ok, I limp for 80. The kill (between the sb and button) calls, and Eldon in the bb calls. The flop is As4c2s, they check, I bet 140. Eldon calls. The turn is another 4. He bets 500, I think and call planning to call on any nonspade river, and maybe on a spade river too. The river is a J, ding. He bets 2000, and I decide not to raise my last $140 and just call. He has A9.
Somehow I don't think I was getting 2500 out of the prop bet. If he's in his normal game he would never ever make such an insane river bet.
Bonus Eldon hand: Eldon opens for 80, one call, I raise to 380 with red AA. He reraises 700 more. I have 4400 back and smooth call. The flop is Q84cc, he bets out 1400, I push for 3000 more. He thinks for a while and folds what he claims was KK, telling me I could only have AA, or maybe possibly QQ. Huh. That's a pretty good read. I reward it when he bets with another player about my hand and pays me $40 bucks. Eldon won if I beat or tied his claimed KK, he lost if I didn't -- so he got a $500 refund from a third player.
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Comments: Read 7 or Add Your Own.
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